What’s happening in real estate this January? Is it the calm after the storm or the start of something new? Let’s dig in and find out. I’m Elena Gordon, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Gordon Group Realty, here to guide you through the twists and turns of the GTA market.

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Why Is Everyone Talking About December?

December 2024 was a typical month with a slow market. Sales were down 1.8% compared to December 2023. At first glance, that might seem like bad news, but let’s rewind a bit.

In October, sales skyrocketed by 44.4% year-over-year. Think of it as a Black Friday for real estate. Then in November, we saw another surge—40% more sales than the previous year. Buyers rushed in, eager to lock in deals before the year-end, spurred by Central Bank rate cuts.

By the time December rolled around, most of those motivated buyers had already done their shopping, leaving the month quieter than usual.

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What About Prices?

Here’s the thing: Average Selling Prices in December 2024 were down 1.6% compared to the previous year. Why? Demand slowed after the October-November frenzy. But there’s more:

• Compared to November, prices barely budged, with just a 0.2% change. The market is stabilizing, catching its breath after a dynamic and fast-paced fall.

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A Surprising Trend: New Listings

This is where the plot thickens. New listings in December 2024 shot up by 20.2% compared to the previous year. Why the sudden rush?

Sellers who had been holding back—waiting for the right moment—finally decided to jump in. Even though December is traditionally slow, the strong October and November markets gave them the confidence to list. It’s as if they all collectively said, “Why wait for spring?”

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Patience Is the Name of the Game

For sellers, here’s a reality check: properties are taking longer to sell. The average Days on Market is now 56 days, up 14.3%. Blame it on higher inventory and buyers taking their time to choose.

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Where Are We Now?

The Sales-to-New Listing Ratio sits at 72%, down 16% from December 2023. But what does this ratio really mean? It’s a key indicator of market conditions:

• 0%-40%: Buyer’s Market.

• 40%-60%: Balanced Market.

• 60% and above: Seller’s Market.

This ratio helps us understand the balance of power between buyers and sellers. Currently, we’re gradually moving toward a balanced market, but remember, each neighborhood and property type has its own story.

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Spotlight: Different Homes, Different Stories

Now, let’s zoom in on the different types of homes. This is where things get really interesting:

• Detached Homes: Prices dipped 0.3% year-over-year. But in November, the 416 area saw a 5.9% increase, driven by eager buyers jumping at mortgage rate cuts.

• Semi-Detached Homes:

• 416 Area: Prices soared 10.9%, thanks to affordability.

• 905 Area: Prices climbed 2.4%.

• Townhouses:

• 905 Area: Up 4.7%.

• 416 Area: Down 18.2%. Why? Builders in the 416 are focusing on stacked townhouses, which are pricier and less accessible to many buyers. New construction is always more expensive, and with affordability still a challenge, older semi-detached homes with renovations often provide better value.

• Condo Apartments:

• Overall, prices fell just 1.4% year-over-year in December, a marked improvement from November’s 7.5% drop.

• In the 416 area, prices even rose 1.7%, hinting at a turnaround.

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What’s Next for 2025?

As we step into 2025, there’s a cautious optimism in the air. The Central Bank’s rate cuts—from 5% to 3.25%—are making mortgages more affordable. Buyers are re-entering the market, and inventory is starting to move.

2025 might be a turning point year in Canadian Real Estate, especially in the GTA area. It likely won’t mirror the wild COVID-era highs, but a steady, balanced market seems to be on the horizon. That’s good news for everyone.

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Your Takeaway

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, now is the time to keep an eye on the market. Each property type and area has its own story to tell, and I’m here to help you navigate it.

Thank you for reading this month’s update. I’ll see you in February with more insights. Until then, stay warm. Talk to you soon!

**All stats according TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board)