Robert McLister: Active listings have ballooned year-over-year, which means more people are willing to sell, just not at prices buyers want to pay

The mortgage market has been awash in rate cuts the last seven days.

Not only are variable rates down, but so are the majority of leading nationally-advertised fixed rates.

If you’re a default-insured borrower, you’re suddenly shopping in the “three per cent section,” which, only a few months ago, had the same selection as the toilet paper aisle in 2020.

Apart from the 25 basis point dip in variable rates — courtesy of last week’s Bank of Canada rate cut — many fixed rates are down 10 to 30 basis points.

With inflation surveys flashing warnings like a Toronto condo listing that says “priced to sell,” betting on more near-term rate cuts is a gamble. That said, if Trump’s next batch of tariffs lands as scheduled, yields might take a temporary dive — right up until markets remember that trade wars and inflation are best friends, not distant cousins.

Meanwhile, lower rates have been a slight mood booster for homebuyers. Preliminary data from digital realty firm Wahi show Greater Toronto Area home prices rising one per cent in the first half of this month.

There’s often seasonal support at this time of year, but total transactions in the GTA are running 53 per cent below the first half of March 2024. At the same time, active listings have ballooned 61 per cent year-over-year, which means more people are willing to sell — just not at prices buyers actually want to pay.

Nationally, mortgage affordability is the best it’s been in four years, as measured by average carrying costs divided by a dual-earner household’s gross income. That’s a silver lining, but when you factor in tariff jitters, wobbly job prospects and rapidly slowing population growth, better affordability can only take real estate so far.

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

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The rates displayed below are updated by the end of each day and are sourced from the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey produced by MortgageLogic.news. Postmedia and Imaginative. Online Inc., parent of MortgageLogic.news, are compensated by certain mortgage providers when you click on their links in the charts.

The rates displayed on this page are updated by the end of each day and are sourced from the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey produced by MortgageLogic.news. The lowest nationally available rates are determined based on providers who advertise online and lend in at least nine provinces. If a provider’s rates differ by province, the highest rate they offer is displayed. Insured rates apply to those buying with less than a 20 per cent down payment or switching a pre-existing insured mortgage to a new lender. Uninsured rates apply to refinances and purchases (including homes over $1 million) and may include applicable lender rate premiums.

Special mortgage offers are curated mortgage promotions from regional providers. These rates are selected, in part, based on MortgageLogic.news.'s assessment of their relative value. Postmedia and Imaginative.Online Inc., parent of MortgageLogic.news., are compensated by certain mortgage providers when you click on their links in the charts. Mortgage features vary and conditions apply so please consult the provider directly to ensure any rate of interest is suitable for you.

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